[Note: this piece was written some time ago and the numbers are those of 2006]
Some people blame the high oil prices on China and India, how true is that accusation?
First let’s take a look at the size of the three biggest countries in the world:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population
USA = 298,213,000 person = 4.61% of total world population
China = 1,315,844,000 person = 20.35% of total world population
India = 1,100,000,000 person = 17.01% of total world population
World = 6,464,750,000 person
Using data from ‘BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2006′
http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview
Oil Consumption
USA = 24.6% of total 2005 oil consumption
China = 8.5% of total 2005 oil consumption
India = 3.0% of total 2005 oil consumption
Ratio of oil consumption share to population share
USA = 24.6% / 4.61% = 5.33
China = 8.5% / 20.35% = 0.42
India = 3.0% / 17.01% = 0.18
So the US uses more than 5 times its ‘fair’ share of world oil!!
While China’s & India’s usage is still below their ‘fair’ share!
Some people will say it’s the increased consumption of China and India that is causing the high prices, so let’s take a look at oil consumption increase for the three countries:
Change 2005 over 2004 in oil consumption
USA = -0.2%
China = 2.9%
India = -3.5%
India’s consumption is in decline while China’s consumption is increasing, although only by a third of its economic growth (%9.90 2003).
The idea that “it’s the consumption of China and India that causing high oil prices” is pure nonsense. It would be akin to blaming the fox to the decline in the Zebra’s numbers, while the lion gets the “lion share”!!!
Now we do the same analysis with Gas and Coal:
Ratio of coal consumption share to population share
USA = 19.6% / 4.61% = 4.25
China = 36.9% / 20.35% = 1.81
India = 7.3% / 17.01% = 0.43
Ratio of gas consumption share to population share
USA = 23.0% / 4.61% = 4.99
China = 1.7% / 20.35% = 0.08
India = 1.3% / 17.01% = 0.08
China consumes almost all its coal production, but only 7% of it’s gas production.
The US consumes from 4 to 5 times its share of world energy resources!
