On Georgian Demographics
In Long Term Prospects of Georgia I showed that the future for Georgia is to be stuck between a declining hostile Russian north and resurgent hostile Islamic south. Today I will show that Georgia is just as weak internally as it is externally.
The BBC published (and also broadcasted) the following
“The country’s birth rate increased by nearly 20% during 2008 – a rate four times faster than the previous year.
…
He tells me that the jump from 48,000 in 2007 to 57,000 in 2008 can, in part, be explained by the Patriarch’s incentive, but also by the rise in average household incomes.
…
In a country which early last year boasted of having economic growth rates of 7.9% there is little doubt that economic factors may have played a role in bringing on the baby boom.”-Church leader sparks Georgian baby boom, BBC News [my emphasis]
Every line of this article is soaked in dishonesty and false reporting. The “four times faster” is actually the second derivative of a ratio, a meaningless number.
The article claims a “baby boom” prominently in its title even though the birth rate is significantly lower that what a real baby boom would be. A baby boom is defined as births amounting to 2% of the population-in the case of Georgia that would be 90,000 babies, 58% higher than 57,000.
There is no comparison with other countries because even with the jump Georgia’s birth rate still ranks 158 out of 191 countries (see List of countries by birth rate from Wikipedia).
To put the birth rate in context we have to look at other demographical indices:
Birth rate: 10.62 births/1,000 population (2008 est.)
Death rate: 9.51 deaths/1,000 population (2008 est.)
Net migration rate: -4.36 migrants/1,000 population (2008 est.)
Total fertility rate: 1.43 children born/woman-Demographics of Georgia (country), Wikipedia
The birth rate is slightly above the death rate and with a fertility rate so low the population is declining significantly. In reality the net change (birth minus death plus migration) is about negative 3.25 for every one thousand.
The rise in population since the Russian revolution has long since peaked-coinciding with independence-and now it is on a downward trajectory (graph from Wikipedia):
The projected stabilisation is extrapolation of the last few years’ slowing decline, in reality the decline will start accelerating in as the economy declines.
“The former Soviet state’s economy grew more than 12 percent in 2007 on the back of foreign investment attracted by the pro-Western government of President Mikheil Saakashvili.
But a five-day war in August 2008 — when a Russian counter-strike repelled Tbilisi’s assault on the breakaway region of South Ossetia — scared off investors just as the financial crisis was beginning to take hold.
Official figures for 2008 are not yet available, but the government expects GDP growth to have slowed to 1.5 percent last year. The government expects the economy to grow around 2 percent this year.”
-Georgia gets $187 mln IMF tranche to weather crisis, Reuters
Boom or no boom the long-term prospects of Georgia are very bleak.
